METEO7ISLAS - FORO CANARIO DE METEOROLOGIA
FOROS DEBATE => Seguimiento General => Méteo tropical y tiempo severo => Mensaje iniciado por: deltaforce en Mayo 30, 2010, 22:22:46
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esta puede ser una de las buenas -w-
20kts-1005mb
(http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/4084/sm201005302100meteo7xir.jpg) (http://img404.imageshack.us/i/sm201005302100meteo7xir.jpg/)
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Buenos niveles de cizalladura, SST y TCHP. GFS de mosmento ve un minimo depresionario de 988 mb, vamos que esta justito para llegar a ser ciclón, el europeo quizas algo mejor.
Un área de convección se ha mantenido 14.5N 65.5E CERCA,
APROXIMADAMENTE 495 WEST NM-suroeste de Mumbai, India. ANIMADOS
Imágenes multiespectrales SHOWS un amplio centro de baja CIRCULACIÓN CON NIVEL
Poco organizadas CONVECCIÓN A LO LARGO DEL DESARROLLO EN comedero del monzón
El Mar Arábigo. ANÁLISIS DE NIVEL SUPERIOR indica que el sistema se encuentra al sur
DE UN CENTRO DE ALTA PRESIÓN anclado sobre Omán en UN ESPACIO DE MODERADO
Easterly cizalladura vertical del viento. Los vientos máximos sostenidos SUPERFICIE,
Apoyado por un PASS ASCAT dispersometría 300528Z, se estiman en 15
A 20 nudos. SEA MINIMO NIVEL DE PRESIÓN se estima para estar cerca de 1007
MB. EL POTENCIAL PARA EL DESARROLLO DE UN SIGNIFICATIVO TROPICAL
CICLÓN EN LOS PRÓXIMOS 24 HORAS ES DE MALA CALIDAD.
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35kts-996mb
(http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/5917/sm201005312000meteo7xir.jpg) (http://img684.imageshack.us/i/sm201005312000meteo7xir.jpg/)
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55kts-982mb
(http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/7589/sm201006011900meteo7xir.jpg) (http://img109.imageshack.us/i/sm201006011900meteo7xir.jpg/)
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prevision:
entre 12 y 48h ....cat1
entre 72 y 96h ..cat2
en 120h....DT
(http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/9438/201003aphet.png) (http://img706.imageshack.us/i/201003aphet.png/)
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segun el mimic-ir ya alcanzó 60kts
(http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/9395/gifsby12hr06.gif) (http://img692.imageshack.us/i/gifsby12hr06.gif/)
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Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Phet
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
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18 GMT 05/31/10 15.3N 63.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 06/01/10 15.7N 63.8E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 06/01/10 16.4N 62.8E 60 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 06/01/10 16.8N 62.2E 65 Tropical Storm
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Pues PHET es HURACÁN CATEGORÍA 3 .-a, cerca de la categoría 4 ..--
CICLÓN TROPICAL PHET CATEGORÍA 3
110kts-941mb
(http://img44.imageshack.us/img44/3281/201006020930meteo7ir03a.jpg)
De momento, seguirá creciendo por el ambiente favorable en el que se encuentra y pronto tocará a Omán
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..-- pues no lo habia visto, no obstante tiene un raro flujo de salida en su tercer cuandrante
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El ambiernte seco continental esta afectando bastante en el desarrollo .......................................DVORAK da 112 kts `por lo que realmente debe andar por debajo de los 105 kts...................................NAVY mantiene los 125 kts aunuqe cuando actulize debera rebajar algo
(http://i675.photobucket.com/albums/vv118/singuango/R4bEnPBnzGdpK.jpg)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2010 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 18:28:43 N Lon : 59:31:17 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 929.8mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.2 4.8
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Lastima no pillarlas a tiempo real.................................
(http://i675.photobucket.com/albums/vv118/singuango/sf02-0604-c-cyclone-phet.jpg)
(http://i675.photobucket.com/albums/vv118/singuango/sf02-0604-b-cyclone-phet.jpg)
(http://i675.photobucket.com/albums/vv118/singuango/sf02-0604-a-cyclone-phet.jpg)
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Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Phet
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 05/31/10 15.3N 63.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 06/01/10 15.7N 63.8E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 06/01/10 16.4N 62.8E 60 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 06/01/10 16.8N 62.2E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 06/01/10 17.1N 61.5E 75 Category 1
00 GMT 06/02/10 17.5N 61.0E 105 Category 2
06 GMT 06/02/10 17.7N 60.6E 125 Category 3
12 GMT 06/02/10 18.2N 60.0E 145 Category 4
18 GMT 06/02/10 18.5N 59.6E 140 Category 4
00 GMT 06/03/10 18.6N 59.4E 135 Category 4
06 GMT 06/03/10 19.0N 59.4E 135 Category 4
115kts-937mb
(http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/6853/sm201006031000meteo7xvi.jpg) (http://img692.imageshack.us/i/sm201006031000meteo7xvi.jpg/)
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ayer llegó a 125kts
(http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/278/gifsby12hr07ayer.gif) (http://img37.imageshack.us/i/gifsby12hr07ayer.gif/)
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hoy
(http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/614/gifsby12hr08.gif) (http://img19.imageshack.us/i/gifsby12hr08.gif/)
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(http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/9438/201003aphet.png) (http://img339.imageshack.us/i/201003aphet.png/)
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Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Phet
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 05/31/10 15.3N 63.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 06/01/10 15.7N 63.8E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 06/01/10 16.4N 62.8E 60 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 06/01/10 16.8N 62.2E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 06/01/10 17.1N 61.5E 75 Category 1
00 GMT 06/02/10 17.5N 61.0E 105 Category 2
06 GMT 06/02/10 17.7N 60.6E 125 Category 3
12 GMT 06/02/10 18.2N 60.0E 145 Category 4
18 GMT 06/02/10 18.5N 59.6E 140 Category 4
00 GMT 06/03/10 18.6N 59.4E 135 Category 4
06 GMT 06/03/10 19.0N 59.4E 135 Category 4
12 GMT 06/03/10 20.0N 59.5E 120 Category 3
105kts-944mb
(http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/6569/sm201006031800meteo7xir.jpg) (http://img31.imageshack.us/i/sm201006031800meteo7xir.jpg/)
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996 mb de presion central y 35 kts de vientos sostenidos. PHET ha perdido toda la convección severa que tenia, dejara de ser TT antes de impactar nuevamente en tierra cerca de Karachi
(http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/7585/201006050855aquaxvisqkm.jpg)
La técnica VDEVORAK apneas le da 29 kt
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUN 2010 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 23:48:21 N Lon : 61:30:59 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.9 /1000.6mb/ 29.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
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Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Phet
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
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18 GMT 05/31/10 15.3N 63.9E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 06/01/10 15.7N 63.8E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 06/01/10 16.4N 62.8E 60 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 06/01/10 16.8N 62.2E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 06/01/10 17.1N 61.5E 75 Category 1
00 GMT 06/02/10 17.5N 61.0E 105 Category 2
06 GMT 06/02/10 17.7N 60.6E 125 Category 3
12 GMT 06/02/10 18.2N 60.0E 145 Category 4
18 GMT 06/02/10 18.5N 59.6E 140 Category 4
00 GMT 06/03/10 18.6N 59.4E 135 Category 4
06 GMT 06/03/10 19.0N 59.4E 135 Category 4
12 GMT 06/03/10 20.0N 59.5E 120 Category 3
18 GMT 06/03/10 20.8N 59.2E 120 Category 3
00 GMT 06/04/10 21.5N 59.2E 105 Category 2
06 GMT 06/04/10 22.3N 59.3E 85 Category 1
12 GMT 06/04/10 22.9N 59.5E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 06/04/10 23.5N 59.8E 70 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 06/05/10 23.9N 60.3E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 06/05/10 23.8N 61.0E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 06/05/10 23.7N 61.6E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 06/05/10 23.4N 62.3E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 06/05/10 23.4N 62.3E 45 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 06/06/10 22.9N 64.1E 45 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 06/06/10 23.4N 65.6E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 06/06/10 24.6N 67.3E 35 Tropical Depression