aqui dejo el enlace del articulo ( y un extracto ..en ingles ) ,donde resumen,quien ha tenído mas y quien menos aciertos en modelar los pronosticos de de la temporada 2009 en el atlantico 2009 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report
James L. Franklin
National Hurricane Center
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center
14 March 2010
ABSTRACT
It was a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season, with only 144 official forecasts
issued in 2009;
only 22 of these forecasts verified at 120 h.
The NHC official track
forecasts in the Atlantic basin
set records for accuracy at 24-72 h in 2009.
Official
forecast skill was also at record levels at those times.
On average, the skill of the official
forecasts was very close to that of the TCON/TVCN consensus models, as well as to the
best performing of the dynamical models.
The GFSI and EMXI exhibited the highest
skill, and the GHMI also performed well.
For the second year in a row, NGPI and EGRI
were
the poorer performing major dynamical models...estos han suspendido
Among the consensus models,
FSSE (a corrected consensus model) performed the best overall. The corrected versions
of TCON, TVCN, and GUNA, however, did not perform as well as their parent models...........
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2009.pdf 
