HILARY promete convertirse por lo menos en un cat 2 
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 211437
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 2NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM HILARY SOUTH OF
MEXICO...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 96.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST. HILARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND HILARY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...
OAXACA...AND GUERRERO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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000
WTPZ24 KNHC 211435
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 96.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 96.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 96.6W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 97.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 98.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 65NE 50SE 25SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.1N 100.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.7N 101.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 70SE 55SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.8N 105.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...
GUSTS 105 KT.OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...
GUSTS 105 KT.REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 96.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 211438
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...AND THE
LATEST MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
LARGE CURVED BAND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE AND A LESS-DEFINED BAND EXISTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NOW TROPICAL STORM HILARY.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HILARY REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS OF
28-29C. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR HILARY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE AGGRESSIVE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS AND THE LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.
HILARY IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/5. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
WEAK STEERING FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY...SO A CONTINUED SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO THE
NORTH OF HILARY WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO ACCELERATE SOME AND REMAIN
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVEN THE UNREALISTIC-LOOKING
NOGAPS SOLUTION.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HILARY. ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 21/1500Z 13.6N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 13.9N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.5N 98.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.1N 100.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.7N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.8N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 18.0N 108.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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