...LESLIE FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
Tropical Storm Leslie is centered as of 5 a.m. AST about 1035 miles (1665 km) west-southwest of the Azores. It's moving toward the south-southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower motion toward the southeast is anticipated during the next day or two, with a turn toward the east-northeast forecast on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie could become a hurricane again on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center.
The next advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 a.m. AST -
www.hurricanes.govEsto lo acaban de poner en su fc
Y el último parte:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 090857
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018
Leslie has been steady state overnight. The low-level center is
estimated to be on the southern side of a persistent area of deep
convection. The satellite intensity estimates are largely
unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory.
The tropical storm is moving southeastward at 11 kt steered by the
flow on the southwest side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough.
This motion, but a slower pace, is expected during the next 24 to 36
hours as the trough pulls away. After that time, another trough is
expected to dig southward over the north Atlantic, which should
cause Leslie to accelerate east-northeastward. Although the models
are in fair agreement for the next few days, they remain in in poor
agreement on whether or not the trough will continue to carry Leslie
eastward or leave the storm behind around day 5. The GFS and ECMWF
have flip flopped, with the GFS now showing Leslie meandering over
the east Atlantic by day 5 and the ECMWF moving the system eastward
toward Morocco. The ensemble spread remains large in those two
global models and there has not been much run-to-run consistency
either. The NHC track forecast remains near the various consensus
aids, which is usually a good place to be when there is considerable
uncertainty like this.
Leslie should slowly strengthen during the next few days while
it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a more moist
environment. These favorable conditions should allow Leslie to
become a hurricane once again, likely within a day or two.
Weakening is expected to commence this weekend when Leslie is
forecast to move over cooler waters and into an atmosphere of
stronger shear and drier air, and the system is forecast to become
post-tropical by day 5. However, the long range intensity forecast
is strongly linked to where Leslie will be, so since the track
forecast is uncertain, the intensity prediction is likewise.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 32.2N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 30.8N 43.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 29.2N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 28.1N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 28.4N 40.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 31.2N 33.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 33.5N 23.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 34.0N 17.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/082048.shtmlLa última salida del gfs vuelve a fliparlo.. ahora plantea ese giro antes de llegar a nuestra región para volver a hacer recular el sistema de nuevo al oeste atlántico adentro. Su velocidad de traslación actualmente está siendo menor, creo que le gusta el agua calentita que está encontrando ahora y quiere quedarse por ahí... seguimos alargando plazos... pero no me fío ni un pelo de lo que puede pasar a partir de ahora. A través del sat está la cosa espectacular con Leslie en clara trayectoria de aproximación hacia Canarias.
Por cierto, el europeo hace más aguas aún... no deberíamos pensar que por una salida loca aislada ya todo está dicho... solo porque no nos la mete encima.. entonces ..sí hay que creer ciegamente lo que diga este modelo? Hace aguas como el que más
